Bitcoin Studies: Finding Nakamoto Satoshi【4】——Satoshi Nakamoto's Residence and Nationality
ZWS(Zhu Weisha), a Famous Chinese Entrepreneur
Satoshi Nakamoto's residence and nationality are the easiest in Satoshi Nakamoto's research. This section thanks Mr. Doncho. I accepted Mr. Doncho's evidence and denied his conclusion by adding new information.
Doncho Karaivanov published an article on November 23, 2020, "Satoshi Nakamoto lived in London while working on Bitcoin Heres how we know." (1) The idea of the author's research was to study Satoshi Nakamoto's posting times, find out that Satoshi Nakamoto had regular posting times, and then ran the statistics. The data research idea is good, and statistics are hard to fool. There is no problem with his analysis; there is a problem with his conclusions. His data study, which I picked up on, came to a different conclusion. The data for his research comes from Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcointalk posts and SourceForge emails. The period began with the first announcement of Bitcoin on a crypto mailing list on October 31, 2008, and ended on December 13, 2010, when he sent his last email. Satoshi Nakamoto posted or sent emails on 206 days during this period, 742 posts.
Using this data, they compiled scatter plots in different suspicious time zones to see when Satoshi Nakamoto was active and when he was inactive. They then used the additional data they collected to identify further the locations Satoshi Nakamoto most likely called home. The six graphs they considered the most likely places were those corresponding to London, the East and West coasts of the United States, and the time of email sending and forum posting as the scatter in the graphs. We have selected two of these, the relatively most plausible graphs, as Ref 3. Can find the links to the original article in Ref 1.
The author, Doncho Karaivanov, studied the data and felt that Japan and Australia are not possible and that if someone does not have evidence of living in London, the West Coast, and the East Coast of the U.S., it cannot be Satoshi Nakamoto. His proof is based on human habits, and the arguments are reasonable and adequate as negative evidence to narrow the search for Satoshi Nakamoto. All three locations seem possible to him. In London, he was a night owl, working until the wee hours and sleeping until noon; on the East Coast, he worked until the end of the day and then slept until early morning. On the West Coast, he is an early bird, going to bed early at night and getting up early. Looking at this data alone, they could not determine exactly which time zone Satoshi lived in.
Doncho appears in the Bitcoin Genesis block based on the January 3, 2009 Times, leaning more towards him being in London. This evidence is somewhat weak. The appearance of the Times content indicates that he could have been in London for a short time at the time. Some people also say he minded the Bitcoin Genesis block on a server in Helsinki, and all of this evidence is technically within the realm of the concealable. Of these three time zones, Satoshi Nakamoto was primarily in the US Pacific. And not in favor of Satoshi Nakamoto living in London.
Doncho has prepared his rebuttal for himself.
" When Satoshi wrote the first version of the Bitcoin whitepaper and saved it on his computer, it included a timestamp. More importantly, it included the time zone of the computer. The metadata reads：
“Creation date (D:20081003134958-07'00')
"This translates to October 3, 2008 at 13:49:58 UTC-7. Daylight saving time (DST) starts on the second Sunday of March and lasts until the first Sunday of November in the Pacific time zone. Thus, the date from the first draft of the Bitcoin whitepaper is from the U.S./Pacific time zone, which is typically UTC-8, but becomes UTC-7 while DST applies."(1)
The authors cite the metadata in the whitepaper version currently available on the Bitcoin website.
"Creation Date (D:20090324113315-06'00')
"This translates to March 24, 2009, at 11:33:15 UTC-6. This date also falls into the DST period but is not Pacific time. Instead, it is Mountain Time (M.T.). States which fall into this time zone include New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah.
“There’s a few explanations regarding this metadata. The most obvious one is that Satoshi used virtual machines for some of his activity and set the time zone to whatever. Another possibility is he manually manipulated the time zone of his computer when working on these files."
The authors conclude that the time zone data is not credible. Then, after some more careful analysis, the authors conclude.
"It is impossible to say, with absolute certainty, where Satoshi lived when he was working on Bitcoin – at least not with the available data. However, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that he was located in London. Put together, his writing style, his activity pattern, and the Genesis block message point to the capital of England as the most likely candidate."
The author goes to great lengths with his article, which is rigorous. However, it is unfortunate to come to a conclusion that is not entirely certain. The reason for this may be a need for more careful reading of what Satoshi Nakamoto posted and a lack of serious thought about why Satoshi Nakamoto left. The law that Satoshi Nakamoto is worried about is the law of the United States. Both the Liberty Dollar and E-Gold cases are U.S. cases, and in a forum post, Nakamoto said of the Liberty dollar and e-gold that they could be connected as bitcoin apps. Showing his familiarity with both. Why is a foreigner familiar with American affairs? His concern for American affairs is also reflected in his post. And even when he left. Satoshi Nakamoto replied to an email from Gavin Andreessen on April 26, 2011, saying.
"..... I want to talk to "them" directly, and more importantly, to listen to their problems and concerns so that they see Bitcoin as a better, more efficient, and less subservient currency to political needs. Rather than an all-powerful black-market tool that is used by anarchists to overthrow the existing system."
"It would be silly if this just raised their profile on Bitcoin, but I think the The boat is done and Bitcoin has been on their radar for a long time."
"I'm going to announce this on the forum soon, because "Gavin's secret visit to the CIA" will breed all kinds of conspiracy theories. "Gavin's public visit to the CIA is enough of a conspiracy theory in itself." (2)
Satoshi Nakamoto was at this point on the side of the Americans, and Gavin was discussing the relationship between the relevant government departments and Bitcoin. Then again, he left because he was worried about the Wikileaks incident getting him into legal trouble, and of course, only Americans are concerned about violating U.S. laws. Some say the U.S. has long-arm jurisdiction, depending on the crime's size. For example, Douglas Jackson, the founder of e-gold, was sentenced to 6 months in home detention, a sentence that the U.S. would have long-arm jurisdiction over. The above facts are enough to show Satoshi Nakamoto's familiarity with American events and his concern about the law and prove that he is an American.
In the research on Doncho Karavanov, there are differences in the time zone information regarding the first and second versions of Bitcoin, which can be interpreted differently.
Satoshi Nakamoto's natural body started using the name Satoshi Nakamoto, as his natural body was not quite skilled at hiding himself, and this was a small mistake (bug) in which he did not intend to reveal that he lived in the Pacific time zone. The current version is the March 24, 2009 version. We compared the two versions and found little difference in content. The latter version incorporates the community's discussion and adds the discussion of relying on transaction fees to sustain it after mining bitcoins. Changing the time zone information is also among the changes. The minor differences are all about fixing mistakes, and the time zone is part of a mistake being modified, which is a more reasonable explanation. And Doncho's description of the time zone information needs to be more convincing.
Analysis of several zone maps provided by Doncho, only the Pacific time zone is the most reasonable. The Pacific time zone includes Silicon Valley to Seattle, which is the likely range. Figure 1 is a time chart of bitcoin forum postings, and Figure 2 is a time chart of emails, where emails are more prominent.
Read Satoshi Nakamoto's postings carefully; it is not difficult to conclude that he is an American. If he is an American, an analysis of the data from Doncho Karaivanov's research leads to the conclusion that Satoshi Nakamoto lives on the West Coast.
Conclusion: Satoshi Nakamoto is an American living on the west coast of the United States. The scope of finding Satoshi Nakamoto's real name is further narrowed down. We know which city he lives in, but it is not the content of this section.
Satoshi Nakamoto: Male, then 33-34 years old, prodigy, American, lives on the West Coast.
Bitcoin exhibits views that are very avant-garde to this day, and he got his ideas from Wei Dai, Nick, and cypherpunk. It just so happens that both Wei Dai and Nick are cypherpunks, and the Wikipedia cypherpunk entry says that Bitcoin was born in the cypherpunk community. Is he a cypherpunk? Never heard him say so. We'll examine that in the next chapter.
Doncho Karaivanov - November 23, 2020, 1:56 PM
2. Satoshi Nakamoto's email reply to Gavin Andreessen on April 26, 2011
Book Name： Blockchain Apocalypse: The Collected Works of Satoshi Nakamoto
Author: (U.S.) Phil Champagne
Translator: Chen Bin Hu Fan
3. Attachment Chart:
Figure1,2 reflects Satoshi Nakamoto's work and rest.
Figure 1 is the post-time chart of the Bitcoin forum.
Figure 2 is the email time chart.