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Bitcoin Price on Track to Hit All-Time High by End of March

This article was adapted and translated from 比特币3月底有望创历史新高

By Mlixy from W3C DAO 2024-02-16 00:00

On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved the listing of the Bitcoin Spot ETF for the first time, and the BTC ETF has already made a huge impact on the market in a short period of time.

Suffice it to say, the BTC ETF saw huge volumes, reaching $4.6 Bn on its first day of trading, compared to the largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, which saw a spot turnover of only $4.1 Bn on the same day. this is probably due to the fact that market makers are much more competitive in the traditional marketplace. And yesterday, February 14, 2024, the Bitcoin Spot ETF saw a total net inflow of $339 million for the 14th consecutive trading day. Whether it's the huge volume or the inflows, these are probably positive for BTC, which has risen more than 25% since February.

ETFs Expected to Boost BTC New Highs

QCP Capital reports that the price of Bitcoin has surpassed the $50,000 mark again after more than two years, and that this price increase has been driven by huge inflows into the Bitcoin Spot ETF, with purchases averaging between 10,000 and 13,000 BTC per day, which equates to approximately $500 million to $650 million per day.

QCP Capital expects this inflow trend to continue as global liquidity continues to shift into spot ETFs. In addition to spot inflows, this week has also seen a significant amount of bitcoin call option purchases, with nearly $10 million used to purchase option premiums with $60,000 to $80,000 strike prices for April through December expirations this week alone. Driven by these flows, QCP Capital predicts that the bitcoin price is on track to easily surpass its all-time highs by the end of March.

the Huge Capital Inflow

According SoSoValue‘s data, on February 14, 2024, the Bitcoin Spot ETF saw total net inflows of $339 million, which has been achieved for 14 consecutive trading days. Yesterday's Grayscale ETF GBTC saw net outflows of $131 million in a single day, while BTCO, the bitcoin ETF of U.S.-based investment management firm Invesco (Invesco), saw net outflows of $37.51 million in a single day. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest one-day net inflow yesterday was BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a one-day net inflow of $224 million, bringing IBIT's total historical net inflow to $4.84 billion. Fidelity ETF FBTC is the next largest ETF, with a one-day net inflow of about $118 million, and a total historical net inflow of $3.56 billion for FBTC.

Currently, the Bitcoin Spot ETF has a total net asset value of $36.77 billion, an ETF NAV ratio (market capitalization to total Bitcoin market capitalization) of 3.62%, and a cumulative historical net inflow of $4.23 billion.

ETFs Absorb Selling Pressure

In addition, according to a recent analyst report by Grayscale, fundamental changes in Bitcoin's supply-demand balance could have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency's price, especially with the upcoming halving event.

Historically, halving events are usually followed by cycles of rising prices. However, a new factor (i.e., ETFs) will also impact Bitcoin's performance during the halving event this April. The report states, "In addition to overall positive on-chain fundamentals, Bitcoin's market structure is favorable to the price after a halving."

The Grayscale report notes that the current new coin mintage (mining reward) of 6.25 bitcoins per block is approximately $14 billion per year at a price of $43,000. In other words, in order to maintain the current price, $14 billion worth of buying pressure would need to be generated over the same period. "Halving would cut these needs in half: a new coin mintage of 3.125 bitcoins per block would equate to a reduction to $7 billion per year, effectively mitigating the sell-off pressure." The halving would reduce mining rewards to 3.125 bitcoins per block, and in response to the cost pressures, miners would typically sell more of their bitcoin stockpiles, increasing supply and depressing prices.

Grayscale said Wall Street's recent launch of nine bitcoin spot ETFs could "act as a hedge against miners' selling pressure. The report said, "Bitcoin ETFs could absorb the selling pressure significantly, potentially reshaping Bitcoin's market structure in the price's favor by providing a steady source of new demand."

Final Words

In the coming years, traditional giants like BlackRock may have more bitcoin invested in their portfolios.

BlackRock's funds currently have very little exposure to Bitcoin, but that could change as public attitudes change," said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer and head of global allocation for global fixed income at BlackRock. Time will tell if Bitcoin will become an important part of the asset allocation framework. I think people will become more comfortable with it over time."

The entry of these traditional giants will also affect the price of BTC.


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