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Bitcoin Studies: Finding Nakamoto Satoshi【2】——Age and Gender

ZWS(Zhu Weisha), a Famous Chinese Entrepreneur


3.13.1 At that time, Satoshi Nakamoto could not have been in his 20s


The claim that Satoshi Nakamoto is young is seen in two celebrity gurus, Wei Dai and Hal Finney. Satoshi Nakamoto's birthday registered with the P2P Foundation is April 5, 1975, which is no longer traceable. Early articles on the subject corroborate each other's birthdays and can be casually traced. There is no claim that Satoshi Nakamoto is elderly.

Hal Finney was the one who emailed Satoshi Nakamoto and was the first guru-level person to support Bitcoin firmly. The first transfer of 10 bitcoins on the blockchain was also transferred to him by Satoshi Nakamoto. He is a legend in the Bitcoin community and is known as "Satoshi Nakamoto's Watson ." Because when the telephone was invented, Bell's first call was to Watson: "Watson, get over here; I want to see you." Hal died in August 2014 in Arizona after a five-year battle with ALS. He wrote the article "Bitcoin and Me" on March 19, 2013, while barely able to type, in which he wrote about his past four years with Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto. Hal has not met Satoshi Nakamoto but has only corresponded with him by email. He describes Satoshi Nakamoto: "Today, Satoshi's true identity has become a mystery. But at the time, I thought I was dealing with a young man of Japanese ancestry who was very smart and sincere. I've had the good fortune to know many brilliant people over the course of my life, so I recognize the signs." (1)


Hal and Satoshi Nakamoto exchanged emails several times, "so I recognize the signs," and indirectly denied the possibility that Satoshi Nakamoto was the same age as him. When Hal was 53 years old, in his eyes, 20-30 years old are called young; from the date of registration of Satoshi Nakamoto's birthday, Satoshi Nakamoto was 34 years old, also basically reliable, within his estimate. But according to Wei Dai, Satoshi Nakamoto appears to be a bit younger.


Wei Dai believes Satoshi Nakamoto was about the same age when he invented Bitcoin as he was when Wei Dai published his B-money paper. He says: "Well, when I came up with b-money I was still in college, or just recently graduated, and Nick was at a similar age when he came up with bit gold, so I think Satoshi could be someone like that." (2) Nick had the idea from 1998, and it was 2005 when he published Bitgold. Wei Dai is a high-level person, and this quote contains other secrets that we will analyze in detail later. Wei Dai was 22 years old in 1998 when he published his B-money paper. How many possibilities were there for Satoshi Nakamoto to invent Bitcoin when he was a young man, about 22 years old?


Bitcoin is not just a vision but also an implementation. The difficulty is more than ten times greater than Wei Dai's B-money back then. It is possible as a young man to make a little breakthrough, such as in a field, to find new solutions to complex problems. Still, implementing Bitcoin requires comprehensive knowledge in multiple subjects, and it is much more challenging to accumulate and integrate knowledge in various areas. No one can do this without sufficient time. The original idea of Bitcoin is a very narrow field, and Nick says, "Myself, Wei Dai, and Hal Finney were the only people I know of who liked the idea" and are motivated to make it happen. (3) Since it is a very narrow field, the developments are all inherited. Nick's Bitgold is closest to the structure of Bitcoin. Will Satoshi Nakamoto make improved developments based on Nick's?


One example is Vitalik, a young man who developed Ethereum at 19 that year. Ethereum is an improved development based on Bitcoin. Ethereum carries a solid characteristic of young people's product, extending all the way, constantly finding problems, iterating all the way, and even thinking of ETH2.0 Sharding. ETH2.0 is a change in the infrastructure of Ethereum, which is a big taboo for development projects. Development for six years has yet to be done well; it is better to do a new project. Satoshi Nakamoto said: "that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime." (4) This is something that can only be said by those who have experience in designing and have made mature products. Bitcoin's iterations are all fixes and improvements, and the structure hasn't moved. That's the difference between a mature product and an immature product.


A similar example is the steam engine, which is also an original product, and the structure of the steam engine has not changed for over 200 years now. Watt began his research on steam engines at the age of 19, referring to all the technologies available at the time, mainly the Newcomen steam engine, and spent a total of 19 years inventing a practical steam engine based on other people's prototypes. The official product was launched when Watt was 38 years old. Mature products take a long time to think through, and even if we develop a "practical" Bitcoin based on Wei Dai and Nick's work, there are still a lot of difficulties and innovations to be made.


3.2 The deep think and foresighted Satoshi Nakamoto


The many profound truth in Bitcoin is still unsolved. For example, Bitcoin's growth cycle is 132 years, and the structure of its coin offering will not change. Without forethought, how can we do this? Why 132 years? Who can reasonably answer? I have seen more than 100 blockchain projects, and there is not one project that understands this truth.


Let's read again what Satoshi Nakamoto said in response to a question from Laszlo, nicknamed big pie Brother, about how long it took him to design Bitcoin.


Satoshi: "Since 2007. At some point, I became convinced there was a way to do this without any trust required at all and couldn't resist to keep thinking about it. Much more of the work was designing than coding." (5) If we analyze the above statement, we will find that "at some point, I became convinced," which means he must have been thinking about this for a long time, and 2007 just happened to be Satoshi Nakamoto's "Aha moment," triggered by the financial crisis. He had an epiphany, and by this time in 2007. He was suddenly enlightened that there was a way to achieve a cash system that did not require trust. The feeling of opportunity was so exciting that "I couldn't resist to keep thinking about it," and he stepped up his design and coding. Who knew it would take more than a year to code and design the solution, and what if the financial turmoil passed? Any new product has an opportunity to launch, and it is challenging to push after a hot spot. At this time, Satoshi Nakamoto was full of worries and suddenly saw the Times of the British Chancellor of the Exchequer prepare a second bailout, overjoyed because the financial crisis was still in. He chose Genesis to this day and wrote the famous words of Genesis. And it caused a discontinuity between the first block and the second block. My guess on Satoshi Nakamoto's behavior is my analysis of ideas, analyzing the password left by his unreasonable behavior. He's so sophisticated, and it is unlikely that he has such a scheming at 20 Years old.


The profound meaning of the Genesis block is not the content of this section and is analyzed separately. In fact, for ordinary people, his phrase is redundant and is written for a person with high observational ability and determination. Only read it to understand the pulse of Satoshi Nakamoto's thinking and behavior.


Implementation generally takes up to one-third of the thinking time for the Genesis project, from establishing the cypherpunk community in 1992 to launching Bitcoin, a total of 17 years. It took 11 years from 1998, when B-money was counted, with this amount of time to think and design to implement Bitcoin. If it was invented at age 22, how likely would Satoshi have to start thinking about it non-stop from age 11? So Satoshi has to add ten years to the age of 22 to make it possible. A total of four years from Bitgold 2005 to a project like Ethereum may be implemented because it's not a Genesis project. Realize a de-intermediary minting system that operates autonomously, an automatic system in which outsider intervention is ineffective, a system in which all forks are defeated, a system whose structure has not changed, and a genesis system. What kind of system is this? The answer is mature systems. Such a system can only be designed by people who are mature and logically rigorous. So he is not a youngster.


Satoshi Nakamoto's logical rigor can be casually cited as an example, such as the positioning of the coin. Wei Dai is positioning "Money," corresponding to his vision of a basket of goods. Wei Dai is right. Bitgold corresponds to gold, digital gold. Coin corresponds to the concept of minting money, and it's a careful tasting with a lot of thought. What is a coin? It is cash, obviously more rigorous and accurate than "money" and bit gold. All the little bits and pieces have been thought out; For example, the birthday he registered also has a deep meaning. We will explain this later. With so much thought put into so many areas, each issue takes time to think through.


His successor, Gavin, who was 42-43 years old, cites Satoshi Nakamoto's praise as tremendous pride in his article "What Satoshi Doesn't Know": "This is probably my most proud email from Satoshi, where I came up with the idea of using the age of a transaction and the size of the transaction in terms of bitcoin value to prioritize transactions and rate limit free transaction based on this scarce resource of old bitcoins. And Satoshi said ‘You may have finally solved one of the most challenging problems." (6) At the time of writing, it was six years later, and Gavin did not consider Satoshi Nakamoto a young man but a guru in his mind whom he was proud of because Satoshi praised him.


From the above, we can see that Satoshi Nakamoto is 30-40 years old and should be more reliable; 30 years old would have to be a prodigy in the teenage years, closer to 40 years old is more usual, 40 years old in the industry to have a significant influence, anonymity is not easy. So 30 more than the highest possibility; I prefer his actual age and 1975 is not far away.


3.3 The gender of Satoshi Nakamoto is not controversial


Satoshi Nakamoto's gender is male; first of all, the name Satoshi Nakamoto is male, followed by the current object of suspicion is not a woman. So the market will be wrong in the short term but not in the long term. As research, It's easy to deny something, but it's challenging to affirm something, the market does not provide female objects of suspicion, so there is no need to study.


Satoshi Nakamoto was a "very smart, sincere," logical, extensive knowledge, long-term vision, early 30s male, which is Hal's point of view. Determining age and gender is essential; if you get it wrong, you are going in the wrong direction.


Conclusion: Adopt Hal's view and reject Wei Dai's view.


Satoshi Nakamoto: Male, then 33-34 years old. We are looking for Satoshi Nakamoto in this age group of males. And he showed talent in his teenage years, and Let's call him a prodigy first.


The next question is, which country is Satoshi Nakamoto from? Let's go to the following article.

 

Reference


1. Bitcoin and me (Hal Finney)

March 19, 2013

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155054.msg1643833#msg1643833


2. Gwern March 17 2014

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YdfpDyRpNyypivgdu/aalwa-ask-any-lesswronger-anything#ZvJDryrskf2Gy6nhG

Gwern posted an excerpt from a visit to Wei_Dai.

A sudden frisson. Szabo, an American computer scientist who has also served as law professor at George Washington University, developed a system for "bit gold" between 1998 and 2005, which has been seen as a precursor to Bitcoin. Is he saying that Szabo is Satoshi? "No, I'm pretty sure it's not him." you, then? "No. When I said just Nick and me, I meant before Satoshi" So where could this person have come from? "Well, when I came up with b-money I was still in college, or just recently graduated, and Nick was at a similar age when he came up with bit gold, so I think Satoshi could be someone like that." "Someone young, with the energy for that kind of commitment?" "yeah, someone with energy and time, and that isn't obligated to publish papers under their real name."


3. Bitcoin, what took ye so long?

So asks gwern in a spectacular display of hindsight.

https://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2011/05/bitcoin-what-took-ye-so-long.html

While the security technology is very far from trivial, the "why" was by far the biggest stumbling block -- nearly everybody who heard the general idea thought it was a very bad idea. Myself, Wei Dai, and Hal Finney were the only people I know of who liked the idea (or in Dai's case his related idea) enough to pursue it to any significant extent until Nakamoto (assuming Nakamoto is not really Finney or Dai). Only Finney (RPOW) and Nakamoto were motivated enough to actually implement such a scheme.


4. Re: Transactions and Scripts: DUP HASH160 ... EQUALVERIFY CHECKSIG

2010-06-17 18:46:08 UTC - Original Post - View in Thread

https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/posts/bitcointalk/126/#selection-9.0-33.706

The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime. Because of that, I wanted to design it to support every possible transaction type I could think of. The problem was, each thing required special support code and data fields whether it was used or not, and only covered one special case at a time. It would have been an explosion of special cases. The solution was script, which generalizes the problem so transacting parties can describe their transaction as a predicate that the node network evaluates. The nodes only need to understand the transaction to the extent of evaluating whether the sender's conditions are met.


5. https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/posts/bitcointalk/127/#selection-63.0-75.99

Quote from: laszlo on June 17, 2010, 06:50:31 PM

“How long have you been working on this design Satoshi? It seems very well thought out, not the kind of thing you just sit down and code up without doing a lot of brainstorming and discussion on it first. Everyone has the obvious questions looking for holes in it but it is holding up well ”

Since 2007. At some point I became convinced there was a way to do this without any trust required at all and couldn't resist to keep thinking about it. Much more of the work was designing than coding.

Fortunately, so far all the issues raised have been things I previously considered and planned for.


6. What Satoshi Did Not Know

Gavin Andresen 2015

https://ifca.ai/pub/fc15/89750001.pdf

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